Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg’s visit to India earlier this week had a central focus: strengthening economic and technological cooperation in the Blue Economy. This is an area in which her country has considerable expertise and with which Indian business needs to collaborate in managing industries, such as oil, shipping, fisheries and aquaculture in a ‘green’ way.

The visit to Delhi this week by Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway, was unusual: she kept to her official programme of discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but her principal focus was on deepening economic and technological cooperation in the Blue Economy.

A nation of 5.3 million people with per capita income of $83,000, Norway is a leader not only in enlightened governance at home, but also in shaping global thinking and policy formulation on ocean management. It has harnessed the benefits of the Blue Economy through judicious use of 21st-century technologies. Oceans produce goods and services worth $2.5 trillion each year, which is expected to double by 2030. Norwegian experts have been saying that the Blue Economy has huge potential for meeting the world’s need for resources, creating jobs and accelerating socio-economic development, but this goal is achievable only through sustainable growth in ocean industries and vastly enhanced international cooperation.

Last September, Prime Minister Solberg created an international panel of 12 heads of government and the UN
secretary general’s special envoy for the Oceans, which has been tasked with devising:

measures to save the oceans from pollution, overfishing, microplastics, rising sea temperatures and coral bleaching; and
an integrated ocean management regime that allows marine industries viz. fishing, shipping, transportation, energy generation, tourism, mining and biotechnology to grow for the benefit of humankind. Its recommendations will be presented at a conference in Oslo in October 2019.

“We are dependent on a clean and healthy ocean, and all use of marine resources must be sustainable,” the
Norwegian prime minister said.

India is not a member of this high-level panel on oceans, but the PM’s visit witnessed close interaction between officials, experts and business leaders and joint projects may result in mutually beneficial knowledge-based ocean management models.

Indian business is likely to monitor the new India-Norway dialogue for its focus on innovations, governance and incentives for robust economic development, while simultaneously improving and safeguarding the health of the oceans. Indian companies should consider participating in a special programme to combat marine litter that has the support of a Norwegian grant of NOK 150 million ($17.6 million). This has recently been increased to $200 million for the next four-year period. They will also be keen to collaborate with Norwegian expertise in managing industries such as oil, gas, shipping and offshore as also fisheries and aquaculture in a ‘green’ way. For example, Norwegian technology for on-board processing and packaging of fish and its instant transportation could be valuable for India.

In the backdrop of a steady increase in trade, investments and transfer of technology, promising possibilities exist for future growth not only in the Blue Economy sectors, but also in hydropower, IT services, mobile connectivity, light consumer goods and investment in Indian start-ups. Nearly 100 Norwegian companiesare active in India. More corporate players are showing interest, as was evident from the well-attended dialogue at the India- Norway Business Summit 2019, held in Delhi on January 7 to coincide with the Norwegian’s PM’s visit. B-to-B
level discussions revealed ample complementarities in green shipping (battery-operated or LNG-run vessels), sustainable seafood production and wind energy, besides cooperation in the defence and space sectors.

This was followed the next day (January 8) by three important developments:

The two governments signed an MoU on Ocean Dialogue and the establishment of a joint task force “to promote
multi-sectoral cooperation in various aspects of Blue Economy.”

At the first meeting of the joint task force in Delhi, participants discussed areas of possible collaboration in integrated ocean management, curbing marine litter and maritime and marine sectors in general.

PM Solberg delivered the inaugural address at the Raisina Dialogue when she urged India to work together for the sustainable development of ocean resources.

Bilateral trade hovers around $1.2 billion (which is the actual figure for 2017-2018), showing a significant increase over $974 million in 2013-2014. The Norwegian pension fund- the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), the second largest in the world, has invested $12 billion in India, and can invest more.

Norway was one of the five countries that participated in the India-Nordic Summit, held last April in Stockholm. This first-ever dialogue demonstrated the convergence among participants on the “key issues related to global security, economic growth, innovation and climate change”.
Prime Minister Solberg’s visit to India was thus a significant step in the right direction. Many more may be needed to consolidate its initial gains.

The following remarks were given by Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, Gateway House as a panelist at an Interactive Session with Reginah Makgabo Mahaule, Deputy Minister of International Relations, South Africa hosted by RIS on January 9, 2019.

A view from the trenches: working in Pretoria, be it as a high official or a foreign Ambassador, one obtains a global view of international affairs. Hence this is an invaluable occasion for us to interact with a top policymaker who manages the foreign policy machine of South Africa.

South Africa has a holistic view of the world, probably the only African country to do so, especially now as it begins to serve again as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. South Africa’s role at the UN, NAM, G20, AU and SADC, BRICS/IBSA and IORA is of particular relevance for us.

Today is not the time for us to examine and analyse South Africa’s foreign policy: rather this is a great
opportunity to listen to the visiting dignitary. I trust we may have a chance to put a few questions later.

The backdrop is important. The Deputy Minister and her team are no doubt fully engaged in preparing for the forthcoming visit of President Ramaphosa to India. It may seem that he comes as an ‘accidental’ chief guest, but this is not so. He will be India’s most honoured and welcome chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations.

I wish to offer a few considered suggestions and pointers focused on how to bring additionality to the already close, cordial and cooperative relationship that exists between India and South Africa since long:

On the bilateral plane, our special focus should be on deepening economic cooperation in all its facets. Following an excellent business summit in Johannesburg last year, the two governments spoke about a joint action plan to implement mutual understandings. We need to pursue this further, and we need to be briefed about the progress achieved so far.

In addition, it is suggested that our bilateral dialogue should focus on the new area of Blue Economy where considerable complementarities could be created.

BRICS, now in its second decade, has been doing fairly well. However, its credibility would increase once its New
Development Bank begins to fund a few projects in SADC and BIMSTEC regions. Is this likely in the near future?

The flame of IBSA has been kept alive by the foreign ministers of the three countries – India, Brazil and South
Africa. When will they succeed in persuading their top leaders to agree to hold the next IBSA summit?

Under South Africa’s proactive leadership, IORA has consolidated gains, in line with the work of the three
previous chairs: Indonesia, Australia and India. We shall look forward to hearing a bit more about the Working
Group on Maritime Safety and Security, the Working Group on Blue Economy, and how the newly adopted
Guidelines on engagement with the Observers may help IORA to implement a few high visibility projects.

We should welcome South Africa’s heightened interest in Asia, but we hope it will follow a judiciously calibrated and balanced policy and in will keep in view the essential diversity and multipolarity of the Asian continent.

Huge potential remains untapped for optimising the work of Think Tanks which wish to assist policymakers in the two countries. We need to take and sustain an initiative under which five think tanks on each side are linked on a common platform to hold periodic dialogues and manage joint research. The important consideration should be to adopt an inclusive approach, and adequate funding support.

On public diplomacy, the South High Commission in Delhi and the Indian High Commission in Pretoria could perhaps do more to engage with senior former diplomats and other experts having experience of work in the two countries. It is an asset waiting to be exploited.

Finally, to sensitise our young generations about the heritage bequeathed to us by our iconic leaders – Gandhi and Mandela, a series of public lectures in each country, to be delivered by the experts of the other country, should be instituted.

U.S. officials used three days of trade talks in Beijing to demand more details on China's pledge to make big purchases of American goods, as well as to push for ways to hold China to any commitments on changes to industrial policies.

The meetings in China were the first face-to-face negotiations since U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Buenos Aires in December and agreed a 90-day truce in a trade war that has disrupted the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars of goods.

Washington has presented Beijing with a long list of demands that would rewrite the terms of trade between the world's two largest economies. They include changes to China's policies on intellectual property protection, technology transfers, industrial subsidies and other non-tariff barriers to trade.

Some 40 days into the 90-day truce, there were few concrete details on progress made so far. The meetings in
Beijing were not at a ministerial level, so were not expected to produce a deal to end the trade war.

U.S. and Chinese officials discussed "ways to achieve fairness, reciprocity and balance in trade relations," the U.S. Trade Representative's office said in a statement.

"The talks also focused on China's pledge to purchase a substantial amount of agricultural, energy, manufactured, and other products and services from the United States," the USTR said.
China made that pledge after the Xi-Trump meeting in Buenos Aires, when U.S. officials said China would start buying immediately. But aside from some soybean purchases, there has been little sign of big-ticket acquisitions.

In December, top Trump administration officials had said the trade commitments amounted to $1.2 trillion, but did not specify the composition or time period.

Those purchases would help meet another key demand from Trump: that China take action to reduce the massive U.S. trade deficit with its biggest economic rival.

Big spending on commodities and goods would send a positive signal on China's intent to work with the United
States, but would do nothing to resolve the U.S. demands that require difficult structural change from China.

It is unclear how much progress on those issues negotiators can make in 90 days, nor how much progress Trump would want to see to stop him from further escalating the trade war. The issues at play have soured the wider U.S.-China relationship for years.

At stake are scheduled U.S. tariff increase on $200 billion in Chinese imports. Trump has said he would increase those duties to 25 percent from 10 percent currently if no deal is reached by March 2, and has threatened to tax all imports from China if Beijing fails to cede to U.S. demands.

Beijing has said it will not give up ground on issues it conceives as core. China will not make any "unreasonable concessions" and any agreement must involve compromise on both sides, the China Daily, a state newspaper, said on Wednesday.

The paper said in an editorial that the dispute harms both countries and disrupts the international trade order and supply chains.

NOTHING IN THE DIARY

No schedule for further face-to-face negotiations was released after the talks, and USTR said the American delegation was returning to Washington to report on the meetings and "to receive guidance on the next steps," USTR said.

One of the biggest challenges to any deal would be to ensure that China enforces whatever is agreed to stop technology transfers, intellectual property theft and hacking of U.S. computer networks.

The USTR said officials broached those topics and discussed the need for any agreement to include "complete implementation subject to ongoing verification and effective enforcement."

U.S. officials have long complained that China has failed to live up to trade promises, often citing Beijing's pledges to resume imports of American beef that took more than a decade to implement.

Derek Scissors, a China scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, said there was still time for a deal to be struck, but it will largely be based on American acceptance of Chinese promises for changes to its economic model, with little evidence of action.

"What really matters here is what enforcements will the U.S. have when the Chinese don't follow through," Scissors said, adding that this would need to entail a threat to reimpose tariffs by a certain date.
White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told Fox Business Network the administration expects the ongoing negotiations to prove fruitful and that the administration's complaints about Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property were "top of mind" in the negotiations with Beijing.

Stocks rallied globally on the positive tone of the talks and optimism that Washington and Beijing can avert an all- out trade war. [MKTS/GLOB]

Companies in both the United States and China are feeling the pain from the effects of the U.S.-China trade dispute. Apple Inc rattled global markets last week when it cut its sales outlook, blaming weak demand in China.

China's Commerce Ministry, the lead agency on its side of the table, was silent after the conclusion of the talks, but was expected to address outcomes at its regular weekly news briefing on Thursday.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang, speaking to reporters before the talks ended, confirmed that talks were extended for an unscheduled third day, saying this "shows that the two sides were indeed very serious in conducting the consultations."

Speaking after the conclusion of the talks, Ted McKinney, the U.S. under secretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, told reporters in Beijing that he thought they "went just fine." He added: "It's been a good one for us."

TARIFF REMOVAL

The U.S. China Business Council, a group representing American companies doing business in China, applauded the "substantive discussions" over the past three days, but urged the two governments to make tangible progress on achieving equal treatment of foreign companies in China and changes to policies aimed at technology transfer.

The group also urged the removal of U.S. tariffs when China delivers on its promises.

"Removal of these tariffs must be a priority, to address the damage that has been done to American companies that depend on trade with China, and to the U.S. economy as a whole," the group said.